At WinHEC 2007, Microsoft’s annual Windows Hardware Engineering Conference Microsoft announced that the end of the road is near for 32-bit operating systems. On the server side, Windows Server 2008 “release 2″, an update to the about to be released Windows Server 2008, will be the last 32-bit OS. On the client side, Windows Vista will be the last 32-bit OS. It’s obvious that we need to be moving faster towards 64-bit, but is this a little to soon?

***Note that Microsoft has since clarified their stance on this issue, details here.***

If you bought a new computer today, odds are it would be a 32-bit system. 64-bit just isn’t ready for prime time. Not many software packages are 64-bit native, and some don’t run reliably under 32-bit emulation. 64-bit drivers are even more difficult to come by. Microsoft has said that the next OS update won’t take as long as Vista did (five years), but they weren’t clear on what ‘OS update’ meant. It could very well be that Fiji, the codename for an update to Vista, is that next major step they are referring to. If that’s the case, then the OS would likely still be called Vista, but it would be a ‘release 2′ (and really not much different than XP’s SP2). This would have Vista around for at least 5 or 6 years (the same or longer than XP), plenty long for any PC you have today or might buy tomorrow.

What if they really mean it when they say they will turn OSs around faster? That would imply that Vienna, the codename for the next truly different OS, will be 64-bit only. It is already being tagged as being a major change, with no backward application compatibility. So if they were to release Vienna, let’s say in four years, the majority of todays computers would not be able to run it, not even very slowly. Not such a huge deal, since most people upgrade in a 4-5 year period, but what about people that are still purchasing 32-bit systems a year from now? Those may only be 3 years old when Vienna hits, and you’ll start getting some upset people.

Can Microsoft pull this off? Companies always talk big about making drastic changes to bring in the latest and greatest, but in the end, most cave in to legacy. Telling all your users they have to start completely fresh is a very risky move; if there are any alternatives, many users may jump ship. If Microsoft wants this to work, the first thing they have to do, and they have to start now, is to push 64-bit Vista hard. Applications and drivers need to converted ASAP so they can push hardware vendors to emphasize their 64-bit systems. If 32-bit hardware is still outselling 64-bit hardware two years from now, Microsoft’s plans are going to get very messy. Who knows, your next upgrade may need to be to Linux, you can be sure there will be 32-bit support there.